There's only one factor in my pick, but it's a big one--injuries. The Red Wings seem wounded enough that they're not going to win. *sigh* Hopefully they're not as wounded as I think they are, but I don't think Datsyuk, Draper and Lidstrom would be missing games with the sniffles.
Had a wonderful dream last night where I was making out with Noah Lowry (as opposed to gross people who I've managed to block out completely). It was very nice up until the point he blew me off to... study? :( I guess I was making out with college!Lowry. Anyway, still nice. :)